Q3 2008 Arizona BLCI
August 3, 2008
The economic climate in Arizona is still faring poorly, but opinions have improved since last quarter, according to a survey of business leaders economic sentiments.
The Arizona Business Leaders Confidence Index gained 1.6 points from last quarter’s decline of 3.5 points, to a reading of 38.5. That’s the first upward move in over a year.
This forward-looking survey, which was conducted in early June, asked panelists for their expectations for the third quarter of 2008. Although a number below 50 indicates worsening conditions, its upward movement is a welcome sign that the worst may be behind us. Panel members have correctly predicted the economy’s direction-of-change nearly 70% of the time.
According to an excerpt from that report (pdf):
The good news is that large doses of stimulus from both monetary authorities and the
federal government are expected to lift the economy in the third quarter. The great
unknown is what will happen after the stimulus wanes and what impact that will have
on the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year. However, for the third quarter, the
upward move in the BLCI is an early sign that momentum may be shifting.
BLCI compilation and analysis is provided by Marshall J. Vest, Director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona.
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